Sad-Worry

0x9030cd617fd95307d5121d065c9d37864119cf12

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Sad-Worry: −$4.2K on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 43% (95% range 16%–75%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$4.2K
return −17.6%
Settled bets
7
$24K staked
Won
42.9%
95% range 16%–75%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 7 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$4.2K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 10 BUY Texas @ 76¢
Texas vs. Oklahoma
Texas vs. Oklahoma $4.5K
Oct 10 BUY Missouri @ 63¢
Texas A&M vs. Missouri
Texas A&M vs. Missouri $4.5K
Oct 4 BUY Chiefs @ 52¢
Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)
Spread: Chiefs (-4.5) $1.4K
Oct 4 BUY Chiefs @ 68¢
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Chiefs vs. Raiders $2.6K
Oct 3 BUY Ohio State @ 51¢
Spread: Ohio State (-14.5)
Spread: Ohio State (-14.5) $4.5K
Oct 1 BUY Steelers @ 58¢
Steelers vs. Browns
Steelers vs. Browns $4.5K
Sep 26 BUY TCU @ 61¢
TCU vs. UCF
TCU vs. UCF $2.0K

All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed