Sparkling-Manipulation-Blame
0x8dc5667e182f4ba1ac9c8a6ed02db849e05fc07d
Sparkling-Manipulation-Blame: −$2.7K on 53 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 34% (95% range 23%–47%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$2.7K
return −4.5%
Settled bets
53
$59K staked
Won
34.0%
95% range 23%–47%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 23 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$8.6K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$6.8K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$862
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | SELL Aurora
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner | $3.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 71¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner | $2.1K |
| Oct 8 | SELL Aurora
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner | $1.9K |
| Oct 4 | BUY LYON
@ 56¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs |
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs | $1.1K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Team Yandex
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner | $2.0K |
| Oct 3 | BUY 1win
@ 90¢
Dota 2: 1win vs OG - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs OG - Game 2 Winner | $1.7K |
| Sep 30 | SELL PARIVISION
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group A |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group A | $4.9K |
| Sep 26 | SELL Team Yandex
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs | $4.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.