Peppery-Cave
Skill vs luck
Peppery-Cave on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$200. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Peppery-Cave: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x8af212afcd98afb3ac28fa23d2b1a6f1081fdca8. Data CC BY 4.0.
Peppery-Cave: +$200 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- +$200
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Spirit @ 42¢ | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 27 | BUY BIG @ 58¢ | Counter-Strike: magic vs BIG (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs ↗ | $2.9K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?