Dull-Battery-Sole
Skill vs luck
Dull-Battery-Sole on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit −$164. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Dull-Battery-Sole: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x8a93f77d5baeffeae691bb8b8c641b0341f841b2. Data CC BY 4.0.
Dull-Battery-Sole: −$164 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- −$2.7K
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$2.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Yes @ 39¢ | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? ↗ | $7.2K |
| Oct 20 | BUY No @ 81¢ | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | $5.0K |
| Oct 20 | BUY No @ 81¢ | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | $4.0K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Yes @ 73¢ | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Anna Yang
@ 50¢
W15 Maanshan: Anna Yang vs Darja Suvirdjonkova |
W15 Maanshan: Anna Yang vs Darja Suvirdjonkova | $1.2K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Yannick Hanfmann @ 14¢ | China Open, Qualification: Yannick Hanfmann vs Tomas Machac ↗ | $1.9K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Yannick Hanfmann @ 14¢ | China Open, Qualification: Yannick Hanfmann vs Tomas Machac ↗ | $2.0K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?