Taut-Semicolon

0x8a8685a792c184e5c2ee8c7d4d4baba7c2c94998

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
+$210K
return +6.2%
Settled bets
156
$3.40M staked
Won
44.2%
95% range 37%–52%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 140 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: +$81K Sep 4 – Sep 20: +$128K Sep 20 – Oct 5: +$416
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

In the live feed

$50K bought UTSA at 49¢

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 Bought FlyQuest at 39¢
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5) $5.0K
Oct 7 Bought FlyQuest at 39¢
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5) $4.0K
Oct 7 Bought FlyQuest at 38¢
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5) $4.0K
Oct 7 Sold Rangers at 44¢
Spread: Rangers (-1.5)
Spread: Rangers (-1.5) $2.7K
Oct 7 Sold Rangers at 44¢
Spread: Rangers (-1.5)
Spread: Rangers (-1.5) $3.1K
Oct 7 Bought Over at 46¢
Golden Knights vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5
Golden Knights vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5 $4.0K
Oct 7 Bought Over at 45¢
Golden Knights vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5
Golden Knights vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5 $3.0K
Oct 7 Bought Under at 51¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 $20K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed