Portly-Derivation
0x8a3ab8120807bd64a3de48695110e390fa2ceb9a
Portly-Derivation: −$15K on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 24%–76%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$15K
return −30.7%
Settled bets
10
$49K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 24%–76%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$6.2K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$1.2K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$10K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | BUY ShindeN
@ 36¢
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs ShindeN (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs ShindeN (+1.5) | $10K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Laura Samson
@ 55¢
Ljubljana: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Laura Samson |
Ljubljana: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Laura Samson | $2.8K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Marina Bassols Ribera
@ 49¢
Valencia: Guiomar Maristany vs Marina Bassols Ribera |
Valencia: Guiomar Maristany vs Marina Bassols Ribera | $6.1K |
| Sep 13 | BUY Alexander Zverev
@ 59¢
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton |
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton | $5.9K |
| Sep 8 | BUY Sebastian Ofner
@ 53¢
Seville: Felix Gill vs Sebastian Ofner |
Seville: Felix Gill vs Sebastian Ofner | $1.0K |
| Sep 2 | BUY Andrey Rublev
@ 57¢
US Open ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrey Rublev |
US Open ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrey Rublev | $3.4K |
| Sep 1 | BUY
@ 60¢
US Open WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Ella Seidel AND US Open WTA: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mayar Sherif |
US Open WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Ella Seidel AND US Open WTA: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mayar Sherif | $2.0K |
| Sep 1 | BUY Michael Zheng
@ 58¢
US Open ATP: Fabian Marozsan vs Michael Zheng |
US Open ATP: Fabian Marozsan vs Michael Zheng | $3.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.