Alarming-Cufflink
0x88f21dd6a92650ee8abe1287bfe4d0655de2acce
Alarming-Cufflink: +$1.7K on 25 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 88% (95% range 70%–96%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$1.7K
return +5.0%
Settled bets
25
$35K staked
Won
88.0%
95% range 70%–96%
Mostly bets on
crypto
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 21 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$139
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$88
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$1.7K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | SELL Yes
@ 99.7¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 8? |
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 8? | $1.7K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 8? |
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 8? | $1.7K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Yes
@ 99¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 5? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 5? | $1.5K |
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 99.69¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on October 4? |
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on October 4? | $1.5K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Yes
@ 99.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 4? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 4? | $1.5K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes
@ 99.86¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 1? |
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 1? | $1.5K |
| Oct 1 | SELL No
@ 99¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on October 1? |
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on October 1? | $1.5K |
| Oct 1 | SELL No
@ 99¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 1? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 1? | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.