Mortified-Keystone
0x86e99faea12fccd8925de5d9f052471baf7a4cdf
Mortified-Keystone: −$42K on 98 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 47% (95% range 37%–57%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$42K
return −11.3%
Settled bets
98
$373K staked
Won
46.9%
95% range 37%–57%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 87 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$22K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$20K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17 | BUY Lions
@ 33¢
Lions vs. Bills |
Lions vs. Bills | $1.9K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Over
@ 52¢
Lions vs. Bills: O/U 54.5 |
Lions vs. Bills: O/U 54.5 | $5.3K |
| Sep 15 | SELL No
@ 95¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | $10K |
| Sep 15 | BUY No
@ 95¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | $14K |
| Sep 15 | BUY Yes
@ 13¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | $1.3K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Yes
@ 13¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | $1.4K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Broncos
@ 44¢
Broncos vs. Chiefs |
Broncos vs. Chiefs | $2.4K |
| Sep 13 | BUY
@ 35¢
Falcons vs. Steelers AND Spread: Eagles (-3.5) AND Cardinals vs. Chargers |
Falcons vs. Steelers AND Spread: Eagles (-3.5) AND Cardinals vs. Chargers | $8.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.