Measly-Rethinking-Subtitle
Skill vs luck
Measly-Rethinking-Subtitle on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–56%) · profit −$3.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Measly-Rethinking-Subtitle: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x8652bc8e5fc9e73f1e233b3b39817295e012b892. Data CC BY 4.0.
Measly-Rethinking-Subtitle: −$3.7K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–56%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$3.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | SELL Timberwolves
@ 99.9¢
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) |
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) | $4.6K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Heat @ 51¢ | Spread: Heat (-7.5) ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Timberwolves @ 42¢ | Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers ↗ | $2.5K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?