Admired-Role
Skill vs luck
Admired-Role on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$59. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Admired-Role: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x8637486964986793609c477ced8be14e840a39bd. Data CC BY 4.0.
Admired-Role: +$59 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- +$2
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- +$57
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY No @ 99¢ | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $3.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No @ 99¢ | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $2.4K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No @ 93¢ | US recession by end of 2026? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on October 5, 2026? |
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on October 5, 2026? | $2.0K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 94¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? |
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? | $1.1K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 95¢
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? |
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? | $1.0K |
| Sep 23 | BUY No
@ 90¢
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? |
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | $1.8K |
| Sep 22 | BUY No
@ 89¢
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? |
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.