Open-Medium

0x8611527a75891f117c74d4a0843ec659f5b7d340

Skill vs luck

Open-Medium on Polymarket: 43 settled bets · won 98% (95% range 88%–100%) · profit −$4.6K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Open-Medium: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 4, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x8611527a75891f117c74d4a0843ec659f5b7d340. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Open-Medium: −$4.6K on 43 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 98% (95% range 88%–100%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit

−$4.6K

return −1.8%

Settled bets

$264K staked

Won

97.7%

95% range 88%–100%

Mostly bets on

crypto

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 43 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Aug 20 – Sep 4: +$33
Sep 4 – Sep 19: −$4.9K
Sep 19 – Oct 4: +$79
Oct 4 – Oct 20: +$63
Oct 20 – Nov 4: +$134

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −0.2% (2,623 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Nov 2	BUY No @ 99.8¢ Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 2?	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 2? ↗	$2.0K
Nov 2	BUY No @ 99.7¢ Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 2?	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 2? ↗	$15K
Oct 31	BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 31?	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 31?	$2.3K
Oct 30	BUY No @ 99.7¢ Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October?	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October?	$1.5K
Oct 30	BUY No @ 99.9¢ Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 30?	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 30?	$5.0K
Oct 30	BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 30?	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 30?	$2.2K
Oct 29	BUY No @ 99.9¢ Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 29?	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 29?	$1.1K
Oct 27	BUY No @ 99.9¢ Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 27?	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 27?	$6.4K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793775663, computed 2026-11-04 07:01 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793775663 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed