Yellow-Alphabet

0x7e5e420a5cde8a322f3b5b93a12a164827f47315

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Yellow-Alphabet: +$56K on 39 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 49% (95% range 34%–64%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$56K
return +12.1%
Settled bets
39
$460K staked
Won
48.7%
95% range 34%–64%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 39 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$69K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$12K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
−$1.4K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 6 BUY Team Falcons @ 58¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $35K
Oct 6 BUY BetBoom Team @ 57¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $29K
Oct 6 BUY Over @ 52¢
Games Total: O/U 3.5
Games Total: O/U 3.5 $1.1K
Oct 5 SELL No @ 34¢
Will France win on 2026-10-05?
Will France win on 2026-10-05? $6.3K
Oct 1 BUY fnatic @ 86¢
Counter-Strike: BIG vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs
Counter-Strike: BIG vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs $1.1K
Sep 25 BUY Xtreme Gaming @ 40¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group A
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group A $2.1K
Sep 25 BUY Team Yandex @ 77¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs $6.0K
Sep 19 BUY Conventus Stellarum @ 93¢
Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs PlayTime (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs PlayTime (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage $1.8K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed