Biodegradable-Heating-Wood

0x7e1827a86edfc58e31bb38e86d4e892bb471872e

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Biodegradable-Heating-Wood: +$7.4K on 58 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 57% (95% range 44%–69%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$7.4K
return +10.7%
Settled bets
58
$70K staked
Won
56.9%
95% range 44%–69%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 56 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$12K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$4.3K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 18 BUY JD Gaming @ 62¢
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner $1.1K
Sep 13 BUY Bilibili Gaming @ 68¢
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner $1.1K
Sep 13 BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 47¢
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner $1.1K
Sep 13 BUY Gen.G @ 56¢
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner $1.4K
Sep 12 SELL Anyones Legend @ 99.9¢
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner $1.5K
Sep 12 SELL Hanwha Life Esports @ 99.9¢
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner $1.5K
Sep 10 BUY 100 Thieves @ 77¢
Counter-Strike: Acend vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Group C
Counter-Strike: Acend vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Group C $1.2K
Sep 10 BUY Back to Back @ 27¢
Counter-Strike: Back to Back vs Galorys (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: South American Closed Qualifier Playoffs
Counter-Strike: Back to Back vs Galorys (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: South American Closed Qualifier Playoffs $1.2K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed