Well-Documented-Outrigger
0x7c37b52eb226bcb9411375ec48b0169663fb6aeb
Well-Documented-Outrigger: −$383K on 118 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 46% (95% range 37%–55%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$383K
return −12.2%
Settled bets
118
$3.13M staked
Won
45.8%
95% range 37%–55%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 116 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$10K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$325K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$68K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
In the live feed
BUY
$59K
bought Spirit
@ 59¢ → won (+$41K)
BUY
$282K
bought Spirit
@ 59¢ → won (+$196K)
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 87¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $1.7K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 71¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $3.1K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 72¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $7.2K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 65¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $5.5K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 63¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $9.9K |
| Oct 7 | BUY LOUD
@ 47¢
Valorant: Paper Rex vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs |
Valorant: Paper Rex vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | $4.7K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 71¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner | $4.0K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 69¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner | $22K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.