Defiant-Competence-Initiative
0x7bc14171ccb0d3e6bac219ec6a76211826e28db4
Defiant-Competence-Initiative: −$95K on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 30% (95% range 11%–60%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$95K
return −40.9%
Settled bets
10
$233K staked
Won
30.0%
95% range 11%–60%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 9 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$96K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$876
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | BUY Yes
@ 96¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | $20K |
| Aug 29 | BUY Pipsqueak+4
@ 60¢
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Level UP - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Level UP - Game 1 Winner | $9.5K |
| Aug 28 | BUY Los Angeles Dodgers
@ 34¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves |
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | $1.3K |
| Aug 28 | BUY Los Angeles Dodgers
@ 34¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves |
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | $3.9K |
| Aug 28 | BUY Los Angeles Dodgers
@ 34¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves |
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | $12K |
| Aug 28 | BUY Los Angeles Dodgers
@ 31¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves |
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | $12K |
| Aug 27 | BUY Team Syntax
@ 35¢
Dota 2: Team Syntax vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B |
Dota 2: Team Syntax vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B | $6.3K |
| Aug 27 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 50¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner | $100K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.