Devoted-Working

0x7afcbc6fc922e774c8f7f5802b6f512e2cadea2c

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Devoted-Working: −$1.9K on 40 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 98% (95% range 87%–100%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$1.9K
return −1.8%
Settled bets
40
$105K staked
Won
97.5%
95% range 87%–100%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 40 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$66
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$2.1K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$160
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 10 BUY Over @ 99.9¢
O/U 1.5 Rounds
O/U 1.5 Rounds $2.7K
Oct 10 BUY No @ 99.9¢
Exact Score: Tepatitlan FC 3 - 2 Atletico Morelia?
Exact Score: Tepatitlan FC 3 - 2 Atletico Morelia? $1.1K
Oct 9 BUY Under @ 99.74¢
Seinajoen JK vs. FC Lahti: O/U 1.5
Seinajoen JK vs. FC Lahti: O/U 1.5 $2.3K
Oct 9 BUY Under @ 99.9¢
Bodrum FK vs. Ankara Keciorengucu: O/U 2.5
Bodrum FK vs. Ankara Keciorengucu: O/U 2.5 $3.5K
Oct 9 BUY Under @ 99.9¢
Ratchaburi FC vs. Sukhothai FC: O/U 6.5
Ratchaburi FC vs. Sukhothai FC: O/U 6.5 $2.4K
Oct 5 BUY MORROW @ 99¢
Counter-Strike: MORROW vs Noir Verse (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group A
Counter-Strike: MORROW vs Noir Verse (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group A $7.0K
Oct 3 BUY AD Cali @ 99.76¢
Spread: AD Cali (-1.5)
Spread: AD Cali (-1.5) $1.7K
Oct 2 BUY Under @ 99.9¢
Anguilla vs. Antigua and Barbuda: 1st Half O/U 1.5
Anguilla vs. Antigua and Barbuda: 1st Half O/U 1.5 $13K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed