Realistic-Chive-Tenet
0x7ad71d79a3bb90d0a87a06500fa0fe11663842aa
Realistic-Chive-Tenet: +$15K on 30 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 47% (95% range 30%–64%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$15K
return +3.0%
Settled bets
30
$491K staked
Won
46.7%
95% range 30%–64%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 30 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$40K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$61K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$6.0K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 | BUY Over
@ 61¢
Houston Dynamo vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5 |
Houston Dynamo vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5 | $6.0K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Over
@ 50¢
Sporting Kansas City vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5 |
Sporting Kansas City vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5 | $16K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Under
@ 60¢
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5 |
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5 | $8.6K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Under
@ 58¢
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5 |
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5 | $19K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Under
@ 59¢
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5 |
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5 | $1.1K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Over
@ 62¢
CR Flamengo vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 2.5 |
CR Flamengo vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 2.5 | $11K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Over
@ 61¢
CR Flamengo vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 2.5 |
CR Flamengo vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 2.5 | $4.5K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Over
@ 57¢
Montevideo City Torque vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 2.5 |
Montevideo City Torque vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 2.5 | $6.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.