Bruised-Downfall
0x796fc6fda8f8e03c03e2a2d012155989960300f6
Bruised-Downfall: +$10K on 38 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 68% (95% range 53%–81%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$10K
return +13.1%
Settled bets
38
$79K staked
Won
68.4%
95% range 53%–81%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 35 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$15K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$4.3K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Oklahoma
@ 52¢
Texas vs. Oklahoma |
Texas vs. Oklahoma | $1.3K |
| Oct 10 | BUY North Carolina Central
@ 57¢
William & Mary vs. North Carolina Central |
William & Mary vs. North Carolina Central | $2.3K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Cleveland Guardians
@ 55¢
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox |
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox | $1.7K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Buccaneers
@ 64¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys | $2.6K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Buccaneers
@ 42¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys | $1.6K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Kennesaw State
@ 46¢
Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State |
Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State | $1.4K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Lions
@ 28¢
Lions vs. Panthers |
Lions vs. Panthers | $1.0K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Chiefs
@ 47¢
Chiefs vs. Raiders |
Chiefs vs. Raiders | $1.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.