Bowed-Millet

0x78e35477f26a8b09072c3e9fa3824759570e2bca

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Bowed-Millet: +$433 on 29 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 28% (95% range 15%–46%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$433
return +2.1%
Settled bets
29
$21K staked
Won
27.6%
95% range 15%–46%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$3.8K
Sep 6 – Sep 24
−$3.4K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9% (2,374 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 12 BUY Over @ 41¢
Club Tijuana vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 1.5
Club Tijuana vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 1.5 $1.0K
Sep 12 BUY Yes @ 50¢
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-09-11?
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-09-11? $1.4K
Sep 12 BUY Under @ 49¢
Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5
Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5 $1.0K
Sep 6 SELL Under @ 99¢
Kashima Antlers vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5
Kashima Antlers vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5 $1.6K
Sep 5 BUY Yes @ 29¢
Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. EC Bahia end in a draw?
Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. EC Bahia end in a draw? $1.3K
Sep 5 BUY Under @ 31¢
Hull City AFC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5
Hull City AFC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 $1.4K
Sep 5 SELL Under @ 47¢
FC Internazionale Milano vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5
FC Internazionale Milano vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 $1.5K
Sep 5 SELL Under @ 99.9¢
Manchester City FC vs. Coventry City FC: O/U 2.5
Manchester City FC vs. Coventry City FC: O/U 2.5 $1.5K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791788420, computed 2026-10-12 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791788420 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed