Sweaty-Minnow
0x78b00985bb1c60955a6b6db8fddf857b16f69f1a
Sweaty-Minnow: −$40K on 29 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 24% (95% range 12%–42%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$40K
return −57.4%
Settled bets
29
$70K staked
Won
24.1%
95% range 12%–42%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 24 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$5.5K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$35K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$1
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | SELL Golden Knights
@ 99.9¢
Golden Knights vs. Canucks |
Golden Knights vs. Canucks | $1.2K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Tennessee
@ 50¢
Spread: Tennessee (-35.5) |
Spread: Tennessee (-35.5) | $1.0K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Florida Atlantic
@ 50¢
Spread: Florida Atlantic (-5.5) |
Spread: Florida Atlantic (-5.5) | $1.0K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Syracuse
@ 50¢
Spread: Pittsburgh (-10.5) |
Spread: Pittsburgh (-10.5) | $1.3K |
| Sep 17 | SELL Over
@ 99¢
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 |
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 | $4.6K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Over
@ 50¢
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 |
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 | $1.9K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Over
@ 46¢
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 |
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 | $2.4K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Over
@ 48¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 |
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 | $5.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.