Colorless-Spotlight
Skill vs luck
Colorless-Spotlight on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 60% (95% range 23%–88%) · profit +$5.9K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Colorless-Spotlight: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x76a0728837861c561ed4be3bc31a32c76986fb5b. Data CC BY 4.0.
Colorless-Spotlight: +$5.9K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 23%–88%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- −$2.8K
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$8.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | SELL Alexander Volkanovski @ 99.9¢ | UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card) ↗ | $20K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Loneer Kavanagh @ 99.9¢ | UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card) ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Alexander Volkanovski @ 50¢ | UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card) ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 23 | SELL Merab Dvalishvili @ 41¢ | UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) ↗ | $7.4K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Raul Rosas Jr.
@ 59¢
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) |
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) | $1.0K |
| Sep 26 | SELL Brady Hiestand
@ 24¢
UFC Fight Night: Brady Hiestand vs. Rinya Nakamura (Bantamweight, Main Card) |
UFC Fight Night: Brady Hiestand vs. Rinya Nakamura (Bantamweight, Main Card) | $1.1K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?