Euphoric-Table

0x75f204b39709544f763ca68c2e3f4a60a309ff6d

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Euphoric-Table: −$66K on 108 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 45% (95% range 36%–55%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$66K
return −8.5%
Settled bets
108
$781K staked
Won
45.4%
95% range 36%–55%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 90 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$15K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$44K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$7.9K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 26 BUY Navy @ 61¢
Navy vs. UAB
Navy vs. UAB $16K
Sep 25 BUY Federico Agustin Gomez @ 56¢
San Diego 2: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Federico Agustin Gomez
San Diego 2: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Federico Agustin Gomez $4.0K
Sep 25 BUY Besiktas @ 46¢
Besiktas vs. Valencia
Besiktas vs. Valencia $2.0K
Sep 25 SELL Golden State Valkyries @ 95¢
Golden State Valkyries vs. Los Angeles Sparks
Golden State Valkyries vs. Los Angeles Sparks $41K
Sep 25 BUY Golden State Valkyries @ 75¢
Golden State Valkyries vs. Los Angeles Sparks
Golden State Valkyries vs. Los Angeles Sparks $12K
Sep 25 BUY Golden State Valkyries @ 73¢
Golden State Valkyries vs. Los Angeles Sparks
Golden State Valkyries vs. Los Angeles Sparks $10K
Sep 25 SELL Yes @ 99.9¢
Will Atlético Nacional vs. Millonarios FC end in a draw?
Will Atlético Nacional vs. Millonarios FC end in a draw? $5.1K
Sep 24 BUY Darwin Blanch @ 60¢
San Diego 2: Darwin Blanch vs Andres Andrade
San Diego 2: Darwin Blanch vs Andres Andrade $3.5K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed