Bad-Documentation
0x73c5701afdefba2814193168448b2992306b2f80
Bad-Documentation: −$24K on 56 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 61% (95% range 48%–72%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$24K
return −11.2%
Settled bets
56
$214K staked
Won
60.7%
95% range 48%–72%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 44 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$14K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$8.3K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$1.8K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 96¢
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? | $4.8K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 63¢
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? | $1.2K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 63¢
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? | $3.2K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Yes
@ 35¢
Will France win on 2026-10-05? |
Will France win on 2026-10-05? | $1.6K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Yes
@ 65¢
Will Cyprus win on 2026-10-05? |
Will Cyprus win on 2026-10-05? | $3.3K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Yes
@ 69¢
Will Kosovo win on 2026-10-04? |
Will Kosovo win on 2026-10-04? | $1.1K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Yes
@ 69¢
Will Kosovo win on 2026-10-04? |
Will Kosovo win on 2026-10-04? | $1.9K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Yes
@ 68¢
Will Kosovo win on 2026-10-04? |
Will Kosovo win on 2026-10-04? | $3.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.