These-Compromise
0x71a70f24538d885d1b45f9cea158a2cdf2e56fcf
These-Compromise: −$12K on 30 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 73% (95% range 56%–86%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$12K
return −14.5%
Settled bets
30
$86K staked
Won
73.3%
95% range 56%–86%
Mostly bets on
crypto
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 30 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$2.9K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$5.0K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$10K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | BUY No
@ 30¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 11? |
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 11? | $2.2K |
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 91¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 8? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 8? | $2.9K |
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 89¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 8? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 8? | $1.8K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes
@ 89¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 1? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 1? | $1.3K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes
@ 45¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 5? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 5? | $3.4K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 94¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 7? |
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 7? | $3.8K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Down
@ 85¢
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 1? |
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 1? | $1.0K |
| Sep 30 | BUY Up
@ 90¢
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 30? |
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 30? | $7.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.