Shocked-Counseling
Skill vs luck
Shocked-Counseling on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$8.6K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Shocked-Counseling: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x712ff6df3887ef407655e2f7711bc1d03e859fe6. Data CC BY 4.0.
Shocked-Counseling: +$8.6K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- +$8.6K
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- −$10
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | $10K |
| Oct 26 | BUY No @ 70¢ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $4.2K |
| Oct 22 | BUY No @ 78¢ | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $5.9K |
| Oct 8 | SELL No @ 86¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $8.6K |
| Oct 8 | BUY No @ 85¢ | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ↗ | $8.5K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?