Diligent-Application-Gymnastics

0x7045a02cf571fcda1cefc08960842624fbb781b5

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Diligent-Application-Gymnastics: +$9.2K on 29 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 59% (95% range 41%–75%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$9.2K
return +8.7%
Settled bets
29
$106K staked
Won
58.6%
95% range 41%–75%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 22 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$13K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$3.4K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 9 BUY Klim Sani4 @ 74¢
Dota 2: Klim Sani4 vs Team Synapse (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs
Dota 2: Klim Sani4 vs Team Synapse (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs $1.7K
Sep 9 BUY Klim Sani4 @ 72¢
Dota 2: Klim Sani4 vs Team Synapse (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs
Dota 2: Klim Sani4 vs Team Synapse (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs $2.0K
Sep 9 SELL MOUZ @ 42¢
Dota 2: MOUZ vs HULIGANI (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs
Dota 2: MOUZ vs HULIGANI (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs $1.8K
Sep 8 BUY Natus Vincere @ 72¢
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Klim Sani4 - Game 2 Winner
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Klim Sani4 - Game 2 Winner $1.8K
Sep 8 BUY Team Synapse @ 64¢
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner $1.6K
Sep 4 BUY Inner Circle @ 69¢
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Level UP - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Level UP - Game 1 Winner $1.4K
Aug 23 BUY Team Spirit @ 60¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs $2.0K
Aug 23 BUY Team Spirit @ 59¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs $2.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed