Insignificant-Window-Recollection
0x6ed3695f9263b56a533a87083e0d60e33add186c
Insignificant-Window-Recollection: +$20K on 21 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 76% (95% range 55%–89%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$20K
return +30.4%
Settled bets
21
$67K staked
Won
76.2%
95% range 55%–89%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 21 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$19K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$1.2K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$560
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 68¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner | $5.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora
@ 67¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $3.3K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora
@ 75¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner | $1.6K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 74¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner | $3.7K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Aurora
@ 59¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner | $3.3K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 56¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner | $1.7K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 71¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner | $2.1K |
| Oct 2 | BUY BetBoom Team
@ 64¢
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner | $1.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.