Scornful-West

0x6d3c5bd13984b2de47c3a88ddc455309aab3d294

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Scornful-West: +$44K on 163 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 49% (95% range 42%–57%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$44K
return +29.9%
Settled bets
163
$147K staked
Won
49.1%
95% range 42%–57%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 61 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$12K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$18K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$14K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

In the live feed

SELL $9.7K
sold No @ 54¢ → now 53¢
BUY $7.5K
bought Colts @ 71¢ → now 71¢ (−$53)

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 10 SELL Air Force @ 72¢
Air Force vs. Northern Illinois
Air Force vs. Northern Illinois $1.4K
Oct 10 SELL Air Force @ 72¢
Air Force vs. Northern Illinois
Air Force vs. Northern Illinois $1.4K
Oct 10 SELL Air Force @ 72¢
Air Force vs. Northern Illinois
Air Force vs. Northern Illinois $1.4K
Oct 10 BUY Yes @ 29¢
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-10-10?
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-10-10? $1.0K
Oct 10 SELL Eastern Michigan @ 50¢
Spread: Eastern Michigan (-4.5)
Spread: Eastern Michigan (-4.5) $1.0K
Oct 10 SELL No @ 60¢
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-10?
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-10? $1.2K
Oct 10 SELL Yes @ 54¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-10?
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-10? $1.1K
Oct 10 SELL Yes @ 54¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-10?
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-10? $1.1K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed