Third-Youth
Skill vs luck
Third-Youth on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–66%) · profit −$4.9K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Third-Youth: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x6bad153a277a5c1892384d8ca28122b3f1704d53. Data CC BY 4.0.
Third-Youth: −$4.9K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–66%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- −$3.8K
- Oct 19 – Nov 3
- −$1.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BUY Yes @ 21¢ | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Sep 20 | BUY No @ 19¢ | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? ↗ | $3.8K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.