Improbable-Injunction-Carpet
0x6b8f18b7af10316b2b57aa6dac2c923986f2449b
Improbable-Injunction-Carpet: −$12K on 24 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 46% (95% range 28%–65%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$12K
return −14.9%
Settled bets
24
$78K staked
Won
45.8%
95% range 28%–65%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 15 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$7.3K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$19K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | BUY Philadelphia Phillies
@ 57¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies |
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies | $4.1K |
| Sep 24 | BUY
@ 18¢
Spread: Packers (-7.5) AND Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners AND Houston Astros vs. Athletics AND Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies |
Spread: Packers (-7.5) AND Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners AND Houston Astros vs. Athletics AND Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies | $1.3K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Andres Andrade
@ 49¢
San Diego 2: Darwin Blanch vs Andres Andrade |
San Diego 2: Darwin Blanch vs Andres Andrade | $2.5K |
| Sep 24 | SELL Darwin Blanch
@ 46¢
San Diego 2: Darwin Blanch vs Andres Andrade |
San Diego 2: Darwin Blanch vs Andres Andrade | $3.3K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Darwin Blanch
@ 69¢
San Diego 2: Darwin Blanch vs Andres Andrade |
San Diego 2: Darwin Blanch vs Andres Andrade | $3.6K |
| Sep 24 | BUY
@ 21¢
Buenos Aires 2: Federico Coria vs Eduardo Ribeiro AND New York Mets vs. Texas Rangers AND Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs AND St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates |
Buenos Aires 2: Federico Coria vs Eduardo Ribeiro AND New York Mets vs. Texas Rangers AND Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs AND St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | $1.1K |
| Sep 24 | SELL Jesper de Jong
@ 21¢
St. Tropez: Andrea Guerrieri vs Jesper de Jong |
St. Tropez: Andrea Guerrieri vs Jesper de Jong | $2.1K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Andrea Guerrieri
@ 75¢
St. Tropez: Andrea Guerrieri vs Jesper de Jong |
St. Tropez: Andrea Guerrieri vs Jesper de Jong | $8.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.