Winding-Background

0x6b44c48cfbc5ef89c3d05d9c70567c36cb2e3992

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
+$13K
return +13.8%
Settled bets
25
$94K staked
Won
68.0%
95% range 48%–83%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 25 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: +$13K Sep 4 – Sep 20: +$15K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$15K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 27 Bought Seattle Mariners at 65¢
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners $4.5K
Sep 24 Bought Philadelphia Phillies at 55¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies $5.5K
Sep 24 Bought Seattle Mariners at 58¢
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners $4.5K
Sep 23 Bought Toronto Blue Jays at 45¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles $4.6K
Sep 22 Bought Atlanta Braves at 68¢
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves $4.5K
Sep 22 Bought New York Yankees at 54¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees $4.5K
Sep 22 Bought Philadelphia Phillies at 65¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies $3.5K
Sep 22 Bought Tampa Bay Rays at 46¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees $3.3K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed