Unfit-Outrigger

0x6abdff9b3ffef2140cde4ad5786108f7484e94ec

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Unfit-Outrigger: +$2.0K on 35 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 37% (95% range 23%–54%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$2.0K
return +4.4%
Settled bets
35
$45K staked
Won
37.1%
95% range 23%–54%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 13 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
−$1.1K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$1.1K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$2.0K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 10 SELL Over @ 99.9¢
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 156.5
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 156.5 $1.2K
Oct 9 BUY Under @ 89¢
Málaga CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5
Málaga CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 $3.0K
Oct 9 SELL Yes @ 99.9¢
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-10-09?
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-10-09? $3.6K
Oct 9 BUY Yes @ 88¢
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-10-09?
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-10-09? $3.0K
Oct 9 SELL Spirit @ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs $1.0K
Oct 8 BUY PARIVISION @ 89¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner $1.0K
Oct 7 SELL Natus Vincere @ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner $1.1K
Oct 7 BUY FlyQuest @ 97¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage $1.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed