Generous-Impudence

0x658e4eca37bfe9f11ea54e3aac9df4f64020d758

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Generous-Impudence: +$46K on 47 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 45% (95% range 31%–59%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$46K
return +34.1%
Settled bets
47
$135K staked
Won
44.7%
95% range 31%–59%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 33 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$4.4K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$57K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
−$15K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 BUY Duru Soke @ 33¢
W35 Las Vegas, NV: Francesca Mattioli vs Duru Soke
W35 Las Vegas, NV: Francesca Mattioli vs Duru Soke $1.0K
Oct 1 BUY Marat Sharipov @ 37¢
Jingshan: Andre Ilagan vs Marat Sharipov
Jingshan: Andre Ilagan vs Marat Sharipov $1.5K
Oct 1 BUY Pedro Rodenas @ 28¢
M25 Zaragoza: Nicolas Ifi vs Pedro Rodenas
M25 Zaragoza: Nicolas Ifi vs Pedro Rodenas $1.5K
Oct 1 SELL Isabella Maria Serban @ 99.9¢
W35 Reims: Isabella Maria Serban vs Marie Weckerle
W35 Reims: Isabella Maria Serban vs Marie Weckerle $2.5K
Oct 1 BUY Toby Samuel @ 21¢
Porto 2: Toby Samuel vs Jerome Kym
Porto 2: Toby Samuel vs Jerome Kym $1.2K
Oct 1 SELL Sander Jong @ 76¢
M25 Zaragoza: Michiel De Krom vs Sander Jong
M25 Zaragoza: Michiel De Krom vs Sander Jong $2.8K
Oct 1 SELL Aliona Falei @ 53¢
Jingshan: Aliona Falei vs Kristiana Sidorova
Jingshan: Aliona Falei vs Kristiana Sidorova $2.1K
Sep 28 BUY Clement Tabur @ 48¢
Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Clement Tabur vs Matteo Martineau
Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Clement Tabur vs Matteo Martineau $1.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed