Mushy-Beggar

0x64f4577177d590e78174b0c5364af8e80fbab38e

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Mushy-Beggar: −$288 on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 43% (95% range 16%–75%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$288
return −3.7%
Settled bets
7
$7.8K staked
Won
42.9%
95% range 16%–75%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 7 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$2.6K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$4.0K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$1.1K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 26 BUY Leylah Fernandez @ 50¢
Singapore Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Maja Chwalinska
Singapore Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Maja Chwalinska $1.1K
Sep 12 BUY Frances Tiafoe @ 50¢
US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton
US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton $1.0K
Sep 9 BUY Yes @ 42¢
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-09?
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-09? $1.0K
Sep 8 BUY Alex Michelsen @ 46¢
US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen $1.0K
Sep 7 BUY Naomi Osaka @ 44¢
US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina
US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina $1.0K
Aug 26 BUY G2 @ 51¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner $1.5K
Aug 23 BUY FUT Esports @ 50¢
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner $1.2K

All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed