Tinted-Text
0x6485f47d0344c03eb4340f985159f6eb2dcba265
Tinted-Text: −$9.7K on 169 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 59% (95% range 52%–66%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$9.7K
return −2.3%
Settled bets
169
$425K staked
Won
59.2%
95% range 52%–66%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 128 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$28K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$5.3K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$13K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Kyoka Okamura
@ 81¢
Suzhou: Kyoka Okamura vs Elvina Kalieva |
Suzhou: Kyoka Okamura vs Elvina Kalieva | $4.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Massimo Giunta
@ 40¢
Palermo: Massimo Giunta vs Alejandro Moro Canas |
Palermo: Massimo Giunta vs Alejandro Moro Canas | $1.6K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Alejandro Moro Canas
@ 63¢
Palermo: Massimo Giunta vs Alejandro Moro Canas |
Palermo: Massimo Giunta vs Alejandro Moro Canas | $1.8K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Elise Mertens
@ 93¢
China Open: Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek |
China Open: Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek | $11K |
| Oct 8 | SELL Joaquin Aguilar
@ 64¢
Antofagasta: Joaquin Aguilar vs Lautaro Midon |
Antofagasta: Joaquin Aguilar vs Lautaro Midon | $1.2K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Polina Iatcenko
@ 49¢
Samsun: Polina Iatcenko vs Dalma Galfi |
Samsun: Polina Iatcenko vs Dalma Galfi | $2.0K |
| Oct 7 | SELL Federico Cina
@ 44¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex Molcan vs Federico Cina |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex Molcan vs Federico Cina | $3.3K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Carole Monnet
@ 37¢
Samsun: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Carole Monnet |
Samsun: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Carole Monnet | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.