Responsible-Sundial
0x62613833b3dc8bb3fdfd89b73d30dc1d0e4d4adb
Responsible-Sundial: −$4.8K on 12 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 42% (95% range 19%–68%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$4.8K
return −12.8%
Settled bets
12
$37K staked
Won
41.7%
95% range 19%–68%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$2.6K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$4.4K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$3.0K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | BUY Aurora Gaming
@ 25¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO5) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO5) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs | $3.0K |
| Sep 5 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 19¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Playoffs | $2.4K |
| Sep 4 | BUY Yes
@ 23¢
Will Falcons Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026? |
Will Falcons Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026? | $2.0K |
| Sep 2 | BUY GamerLegion
@ 68¢
Counter-Strike: K27 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: K27 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs | $7.5K |
| Aug 30 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 54¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B |
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B | $5.0K |
| Aug 30 | BUY Aurora Gaming
@ 46¢
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) | $2.9K |
| Aug 27 | BUY G2
@ 30¢
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A |
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A | $1.2K |
| Aug 27 | BUY Legacy
@ 42¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B |
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B | $2.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.