Tedious-Congo
Skill vs luck
Tedious-Congo on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$594. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Tedious-Congo: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x6122fd43fdb9bd338815dac35f4b6d61620dfc91. Data CC BY 4.0.
Tedious-Congo: −$594 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- −$594
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | SELL Yes @ 79¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $4.0K |
| Oct 18 | SELL Yes @ 79¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 16 | BUY No @ 67¢ | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 12 | SELL No @ 83¢ | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Yes @ 57¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $2.8K |
| Sep 19 | SELL Yes @ 73¢ | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? ↗ | $1.6K |
| Aug 28 | SELL No @ 83¢ | Iran leadership change by December 31? ↗ | $2.5K |
| Aug 28 | SELL No @ 86¢ | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ↗ | $3.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?