Ambitious-Expansionism-Fortnight
0x5f3c2b8e805e93d0ad11ff50a9cc0a429af30cf1
Ambitious-Expansionism-Fortnight: −$81K on 15 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 20% (95% range 7%–45%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$81K
return −76.3%
Settled bets
15
$106K staked
Won
20.0%
95% range 7%–45%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 13 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$1.3K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$48K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$31K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 42¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $7.4K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 37¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner | $1.7K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 48¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner | $11K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 47¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner | $4.5K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 38¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $5.7K |
| Oct 5 | BUY MOUZ
@ 49¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner | $4.1K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Legacy
@ 35¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs 1WIN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs 1WIN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $10K |
| Sep 18 | BUY FURIA
@ 32¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs | $5.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.