Grounded-Iron
Skill vs luck
Grounded-Iron on Polymarket: 10 settled bets · won 40% (95% range 17%–69%) · profit −$11K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Grounded-Iron: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x5db67e883e361ef9296194028ee33ecc8283d7af. Data CC BY 4.0.
Grounded-Iron: −$11K on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 17%–69%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- −$1.3K
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- −$9.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BUY Texas State
@ 70¢
Texas State vs. Boise State |
Texas State vs. Boise State | $4.9K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Elena Pridankina
@ 51¢
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Elena Pridankina |
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Elena Pridankina | $3.9K |
| Oct 31 | SELL Oregon @ 99.9¢ | Northwestern vs. Oregon ↗ | $10K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Oregon @ 55¢ | Northwestern vs. Oregon ↗ | $5.5K |
| Oct 31 | BUY LYON @ 65¢ | LoL: LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $3.6K |
| Oct 31 | BUY LYON @ 66¢ | LoL: LOS vs LYON - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $2.4K |
| Oct 31 | SELL Syracuse @ 11¢ | SMU vs. Syracuse ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Syracuse @ 37¢ | SMU vs. Syracuse ↗ | $3.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.