Hard-Wrong
0x5b100dbef7ec223acf02717598789ef90b679659
Hard-Wrong: +$21K on 93 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 61% (95% range 51%–71%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$21K
return +11.9%
Settled bets
93
$175K staked
Won
61.3%
95% range 51%–71%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 82 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$13K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$3.8K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$3.5K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 49¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner | $2.5K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 78¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | $1.7K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 68¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner | $2.2K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 71¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner | $2.8K |
| Oct 6 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 51¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner | $3.1K |
| Oct 6 | SELL LGD Gaming
@ 46¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $1.8K |
| Oct 6 | BUY HANJIN BRION
@ 74¢
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Team Vitality
@ 75¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: GAM Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $2.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.