Joyous-Interpreter

0x59018ff1f4300838f635386ab5e0b8b353ce63a2

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Joyous-Interpreter: −$15K on 20 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 30% (95% range 14%–52%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$15K
return −9.0%
Settled bets
20
$162K staked
Won
30.0%
95% range 14%–52%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 13 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
−$14K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$364
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 8 BUY @ 29¢
South Florida vs. UTSA AND China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elina Svitolina AND Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)
South Florida vs. UTSA AND China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elina Svitolina AND Spread: Cowboys (-3.5) $1.1K
Oct 8 BUY Sangal @ 58¢
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sangal (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sangal (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs $2.6K
Oct 8 SELL Francesco Passaro @ 99.9¢
Palermo: Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Francesco Passaro
Palermo: Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Francesco Passaro $5.6K
Oct 8 BUY Chinggis Warriors @ 51¢
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs Chinggis Warriors (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup #3 Playoffs
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs Chinggis Warriors (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup #3 Playoffs $1.9K
Oct 8 BUY @ 46¢
$1.2K
Oct 7 BUY Chicago White Sox @ 54¢
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox $1.6K
Oct 7 SELL PARIVISION @ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner $1.4K
Oct 6 BUY Aurora Gaming @ 46¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner $1.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed