Exciting-Fir
0x57b258499f7a4cfc5043ceae57a51f7e6f529da2
Exciting-Fir: −$5.6K on 12 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 58% (95% range 32%–81%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$5.6K
return −28.7%
Settled bets
12
$20K staked
Won
58.3%
95% range 32%–81%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$3.4K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$2.2K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 54¢
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) |
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) | $1.1K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 54¢
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) |
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) | $1.1K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Coventry City FC
@ 75¢
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) |
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) | $1.4K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Hanwha Life Esports
@ 54¢
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner | $1.1K |
| Sep 9 | BUY No
@ 78¢
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-09-09? |
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-09-09? | $1.6K |
| Sep 2 | BUY Under
@ 58¢
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5 |
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5 | $1.2K |
| Sep 1 | BUY No
@ 62¢
Will Bromley FC win on 2026-09-01? |
Will Bromley FC win on 2026-09-01? | $1.2K |
| Aug 31 | BUY Vitality
@ 69¢
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B |
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B | $1.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.