Costly-Compass-Monitor
0x578a71a54f1d914668305dda452535f99f2dc93e
Costly-Compass-Monitor: −$1.8K on 22 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 36% (95% range 20%–57%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$1.8K
return −6.7%
Settled bets
22
$27K staked
Won
36.4%
95% range 20%–57%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$2.1K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$2.5K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$1.4K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | SELL Yes
@ 95¢
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09? |
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09? | $1.8K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 72¢
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09? |
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09? | $1.4K |
| Sep 29 | SELL Yes
@ 99.7¢
Will England win on 2026-09-29? |
Will England win on 2026-09-29? | $2.0K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Yes
@ 86¢
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-10-01? |
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-10-01? | $1.5K |
| Sep 26 | SELL Yes
@ 84¢
Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? |
Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? | $1.5K |
| Sep 20 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-20? |
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-20? | $1.8K |
| Sep 19 | SELL Yes
@ 99.4¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-19? |
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-19? | $3.8K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Yes
@ 91¢
Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-09-17? |
Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-09-17? | $2.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.