Unlined-Observation
0x56d8d5f6585716a1a900282192dd21a4261e1cce
Unlined-Observation: −$12K on 43 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 58% (95% range 43%–72%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$12K
return −6.1%
Settled bets
43
$200K staked
Won
58.1%
95% range 43%–72%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 27 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$2.5K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$6.3K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$8.4K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 99¢
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09? |
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09? | $3.4K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Under
@ 98¢
Galatasaray SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: 1st Half O/U 1.5 |
Galatasaray SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | $1.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Under
@ 99.9¢
Galatasaray SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: 1st Half O/U 1.5 |
Galatasaray SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | $5.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Under
@ 99.9¢
Galatasaray SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: 1st Half O/U 1.5 |
Galatasaray SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | $5.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 99¢
Will Albania win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Albania win on 2026-10-06? | $4.2K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 99¢
Will Albania win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Albania win on 2026-10-06? | $5.6K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? | $3.8K |
| Oct 6 | SELL Yes
@ 99¢
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? | $4.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.