Ultimate-Waterfall

0x54d00bee04ad0fef256af327f4f0bb6842e18e20

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Ultimate-Waterfall: +$18K on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 65%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$18K
return +83.9%
Settled bets
7
$21K staked
Won
100.0%
95% range 65%–100%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$7.1K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$5.3K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$5.2K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 4 BUY 49ers @ 59¢
Broncos vs. 49ers
Broncos vs. 49ers $5.0K
Oct 4 BUY Colts @ 54¢
Spread: Colts (-3.5)
Spread: Colts (-3.5) $2.0K
Sep 18 SELL Chicago White Sox @ 54¢
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox $2.0K
Sep 15 BUY Texas Rangers @ 55¢
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers $2.0K
Sep 4 BUY Chicago White Sox @ 54¢
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox $2.0K
Sep 2 BUY Toronto Blue Jays @ 56¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians $2.0K
Aug 26 SELL Philadelphia Phillies @ 95¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners $13K
Aug 26 BUY Philadelphia Phillies @ 56¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners $7.9K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed