Sparse-Motel
0x5461052f2b30801b598d8090f9da01f870b192be
Sparse-Motel: −$28K on 14 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 14% (95% range 4%–40%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$28K
return −63.5%
Settled bets
14
$44K staked
Won
14.3%
95% range 4%–40%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$23K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$4.8K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 38¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs |
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | $4.8K |
| Sep 6 | BUY Dplus KIA
@ 36¢
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Playoffs |
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Playoffs | $1.6K |
| Sep 6 | BUY Team WE
@ 39¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner |
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner | $2.9K |
| Sep 2 | BUY T1
@ 56¢
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) |
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) | $1.6K |
| Sep 2 | SELL Over
@ 99.89¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 |
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 | $1.6K |
| Aug 26 | BUY Over
@ 40¢
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 |
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 | $4.8K |
| Aug 26 | BUY Over
@ 31¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 |
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 | $4.7K |
| Aug 26 | BUY Over
@ 34¢
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 |
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 | $5.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.