Treasured-Punishment
0x53b217e9f82f799ca2fe7aa10a3747c8cab09f96
Treasured-Punishment: +$23K on 32 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 59% (95% range 42%–75%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$23K
return +41.9%
Settled bets
32
$56K staked
Won
59.4%
95% range 42%–75%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 21 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$23K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23 | SELL Team Spirit
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs |
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs | $2.2K |
| Aug 23 | SELL Team Spirit
@ 50¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs |
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs | $3.1K |
| Aug 23 | SELL Team Spirit
@ 39¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner |
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner | $1.4K |
| Aug 23 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 40¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner |
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner | $1.9K |
| Aug 23 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 65¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner |
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner | $2.0K |
| Aug 23 | SELL Team Spirit
@ 55¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner | $1.5K |
| Aug 23 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 38¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner | $1.8K |
| Aug 23 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 45¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.