Timely-Federation

0x533c789d479d445186ff8ec132fa7a27541c2658

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Timely-Federation: −$26K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–43%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$26K
return −100.0%
Settled bets
5
$26K staked
Won
0.0%
95% range 0%–43%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$26K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Aug 24 BUY Cowboys @ 54¢
Saints vs. Cowboys
Saints vs. Cowboys $5.4K
Aug 24 BUY Cowboys @ 54¢
Saints vs. Cowboys
Saints vs. Cowboys $4.3K
Aug 23 BUY Dolphins @ 37¢
Dolphins vs. Raiders
Dolphins vs. Raiders $1.1K
Aug 23 BUY Dolphins @ 51¢
Spread: Raiders (-3.5)
Spread: Raiders (-3.5) $1.5K
Aug 23 BUY Yes @ 68¢
Will Shedeur Sanders be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?
Will Shedeur Sanders be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB? $2.1K
Aug 23 BUY Yes @ 66¢
Will Shedeur Sanders be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?
Will Shedeur Sanders be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB? $1.7K
Aug 23 BUY Anthony Hernandez @ 67¢
UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card)
UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card) $10K

All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed