Measly-Sleep
Skill vs luck
Measly-Sleep on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$3.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Measly-Sleep: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x52f9c45a6fa8182649067bef26209878b935e1c7. Data CC BY 4.0.
Measly-Sleep: +$3.8K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$3.8K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | SELL Yes @ 26¢ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Yes @ 28¢ | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 27 | SELL Opp.
@ 47¢
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? |
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? | $2.0K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Yes
@ 36¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? |
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | $1.0K |
| Oct 22 | SELL Yes @ 47¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Yes @ 57¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? ↗ | $1.0K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?