Melodic-Total-Fringe
Skill vs luck
Melodic-Total-Fringe on Polymarket: 9 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 12%–65%) · profit −$4.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Melodic-Total-Fringe: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x52778e3371b65fffcc7b96f32a93426ddfffad90. Data CC BY 4.0.
Melodic-Total-Fringe: −$4.0K on 9 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 12%–65%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- −$4.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | SELL G2 @ 67¢ | Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B ↗ | $1.2K |
| Nov 2 | SELL Liquid @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B ↗ | $9.6K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Liquid @ 77¢ | Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B ↗ | $2.9K |
| Nov 2 | BUY BetBoom Team
@ 66¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B |
Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B | $1.5K |
| Nov 2 | SELL Liquid
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner | $3.0K |
| Nov 2 | SELL TheMongolz @ 54¢ | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A ↗ | $1.1K |
| Nov 2 | SELL Heroic @ 72¢ | Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A ↗ | $2.5K |
| Nov 2 | SELL Heroic @ 75¢ | Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A ↗ | $7.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.